The climate crisis is no longer threatening the environment alone, it is beginning to strip people of one of their most basic rights: access to food.
A recent study warns that the number of countries facing acute food insecurity could nearly triple, reaching around 24 nations, if global temperatures rise by 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
This scenario no longer appears distant. Rather, it is becoming one of the most likely trajectories as emissions continue at current rates. The analysis, published this March by the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), highlights the widening gap between wealthy and low-income nations in confronting climate-related food crises.
Although global warming is expected to increase food insecurity risks worldwide, food systems in low-income countries are projected to deteriorate seven times faster than those in wealthier nations.
The Gap Between the Global North and South Is Widening
Ritu Bharadwaj, researcher at the International Institute for Environment and Development and author of the study, told The Guardian that countries already suffering from poverty, fragility, and weak social safety nets will be among the hardest hit, despite contributing very little to global emissions.
She added that nearly 59% of the world’s population currently lives in countries with below-average food security, and climate change is expected to deepen global food inequality.
According to the study, food systems are no longer local they are deeply interconnected through global supply chains. This means that any climate shock, such as droughts or floods in a major production region, can rapidly ripple through international markets, causing price spikes and supply disruptions.
As a result, even wealthy countries remain vulnerable to these shocks, despite their greater capacity to manage crises.
How Is Food Risk Measured?
The International Institute for Environment and Development developed a Food Security Index covering 162 countries, assessing the vulnerability of food systems under a 2°C warming scenario.
The index evaluates climate impacts based on four key pillars of food systems: availability, accessibility, utilization, and sustainability.
Researchers warn that the earliest signs of climate-related damage will likely appear through rising malnutrition, increasing food prices, and market instability.
The Countries Most at Risk
The index identifies Somalia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Haiti, Madagascar, and Afghanistan among the countries most vulnerable to severe food insecurity.
Under the 2°C warming scenario, food insecurity in these countries could increase by more than 30%, compared to just 3% in high-income nations.
Meanwhile, wealthier countries ranked among the least vulnerable, led by Iceland, Denmark, Austria, Ireland, and Belgium.
The Arab World: Somalia at the Epicenter
The Arab region reflects many of the same global patterns though in some countries, the situation appears even more fragile.
According to the index, risks are especially severe in conflict-affected states such as Somalia, which ranked 162nd globally, making it the world’s most vulnerable country to food insecurity in the IIED index.
The institute identified a global average food security score of 6.74. Based on this benchmark, eight Arab countries fell below the global average:
Somalia: 1.29
Sudan: 4.12
Iraq: 5.17
Djibouti: 5.41
Mauritania: 5.59
Lebanon: 6.00
Jordan: 6.48
Egypt: 6.49
The Climate Paradox: Those Least Responsible Suffer the Most
Data from the Food Security Index shows that low-income countries contribute only around 1% of global emissions, while upper middle and high income nations account for more than 80%.
Yet poorer nations bear the heaviest burden of the crisis, while wealthier countries possess the financial resources needed to absorb climate and food-related shocks.
Can the Risks Be Reduced?
The study ultimately calls for clear pathways to reduce risks, particularly through investment in climate resilient agriculture and improved water and soil management.
While such measures may not completely prevent the crisis, they represent the first line of defense in reducing its severity and narrowing the widening gap in global food inequality.
As the world edges closer to the 2°C threshold, the critical question remains:
Will we act now to reduce climate risks or wait until the crisis becomes impossible to escape?
