The Pacific tuna industry is facing a growing threat from climate change, signaling an economic and environmental crisis for many small island nations that rely heavily on this sector as a primary source of national income.
According to recent research and scientific reports, rising greenhouse gas emissions are pushing tuna stocks eastward, moving them outside the exclusive economic zones of these nations. This shift exposes their governments to major financial losses and jeopardizes the livelihoods of their communities, according to “Phys”.
Climate Change’s Impact on Tuna
This shift results in a significant decline in the amount of tuna available within these nations’ territorial waters, leading to reduced revenue from fishing license fees—one of the main income sources for many Pacific countries such as Kiribati, Tokelau, and the Marshall Islands.
Under a high-emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), models indicate a potential 13% decrease in the abundance of the three key tuna species—skipjack and yellowfin—within Pacific island waters by 2050.
Such a decline threatens the primary source of fishing-license income. In some small island nations, these fees account for up to 37% of total government budgets.
Projected annual losses from fishing-license revenue range between $40 million and $140 million, representing 8–17% of total yearly income for several developing island states whose economies are tightly linked to the tuna industry. In the most dependent nations—such as Tokelau and certain smaller islands—tuna revenue can make up over 80% of their national budgets.
Solutions to Overcome the Crisis
To tackle these growing challenges, 14 Pacific nations announced in February 2025 that they had secured a major $107.4 million grant from the Green Climate Fund (GCF). The funding will support a project running through 2031, aimed at strengthening adaptation capacity and managing the risks caused by shifting tuna distributions.
The support package includes tools to monitor biological and distributional changes in tuna stocks, as well as expanding the use of Fish Aggregating Devices (FADs) to boost the productivity of local fishers, reduce fuel consumption, and lower the risk of unregulated or unsustainable fishing.
